Archive for October, 2009
« Previous EntriesPOST-GDP WAKE-UP CALL
Submitted by The Capital Spectator
Today’s income and spending report for September takes the shine off of yesterday’s glowing GDP news. A closer look at what unfolded in the third quarter has now arrived in terms of the impact on consumer sentiment and the ongoing pain from the labor market. The upward momentum that was all [...]
The 2009Q3 Advance GDP Release and Stimulus Measures
Submitted by Econbrowser
The 3.5% growth rate was, in my view, in large part attributable to direct measures to stimulate the economy, including direct spending on goods and services by the government (Federal, state and local), as well as tax measures. First, let’s take a look at how each category of final demand accounted for total [...]
Rx: The Cure of Market-Based Health Care Reform, Like Retail Clinics Partnering With Hospitals
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
From the Minneapolis-St. Paul StarTribune:
In a marriage of giants, Allina Hospitals and Clinics is teaming up with MinuteClinic to coordinate care for patients and expand medical services down the road. Allina is the biggest hospital and clinic group in the Twin Cities, with 11 hospitals and 90 clinics. MinuteClinic, the pioneer of [...]
U.S. Economy Expands: My Interview on the NewsHour with Jim Lehrer
Submitted by Businomics Blog
You can watch the interview of Diane Swonk, Shirley Leung and myself. You can also read a transcript.
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Regus Business Tracker Survey Gives U.S. Economic Flashforward
A recent global study of over 11,000 corporations across 15 countries commissioned by Regus (www.regus.com), the global provider of innovative workspace solutions, found that strong economic recovery is not expected to begin until the summer of 2010. The study also found that firms in the U.S. do not expect significant recovery until August 2010. [...]
why world wealth is limited?
A fact says ” world wealth is limited because capitalist countries rule the retarded world” is fully true. while other countries like Russia and china control investments inside their borders there are other parts of the world give the wealth to retarded capitalist investors who use maphia outside and inside the country and effect all [...]
Q3 GDP IS UP, BUT THE WAR FOR GROWTH HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN
Submitted by The Capital Spectator
It’s official: the U.S. economy expanded by 3.5% in the third quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports today. Encouraging as that is, it’s neither a surprise nor anything near to closure for the financial and economic hurricane of the last year or so. But it is a step in the [...]
The 2009Q3 Advance GDP Release and Stimulus Measures
Submitted by Econbrowser
The 3.5% growth rate was, in my view, in large part attributable to direct measures to stimulate the economy, including direct spending on goods and services by the government (Federal, state and local), as well as tax measures. First, let’s take a look at how each category of final demand accounted for total [...]
Futures As Predictors of Commodity Prices
Submitted by Econbrowser
As commodity prices start rising again — at least some — the question of whether futures are useful indicators seems relevant. Figure 1 shows the IMF commodity price indices, as reported in the October World Economic Outlook:
Figure 1: Commodity price indices for energy (blue), food (red), agricultural raw materials (green), metals (black) and [...]
Low Prices Are Harmful to Consumers?
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
Click to enlarge.From the American Booksellers Association letter to the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Deptartment of Justice:
We ask that the Department of Justice investigate practices by Amazon.com, Wal-Mart, and Target that we believe constitute illegal predatory pricing that is damaging to the book industry and harmful to consumers.
As reported in the [...]
Jobless Claims (4-Wk. Avg.) Drop to Lowest Level in 40 Weeks, Down 132,500 (-20.1%) From April Peak
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits dipped by 1,000 last week, while the number collecting long-term aid fell to the lowest reading in seven months as the job market steadied. Another key gauge of underlying labor market health, the 4-week moving average for new [...]
Website of the Day
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
From Comcast.net via Rand Gerald.
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News Hour Interview on the Economy
Submitted by Businomics Blog
I’m scheduled to appear on the News Hour with Jim Lehrer tonight (Thursday, October 29, 2009), 6:00 most places. Fire up your Tivo.
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GDP 3rd Quarter 2009: We’re Out of Recession, But Still Weak
Submitted by Businomics Blog
The numbers for the third quarter look nice, or what passes for nice these days. GDP rose smartly, pretty much confirming the general view that the recession is over (more on that below).
The details surprised me a bit, even though the total growth was in the ballpark of my forecast (4.2 percent, [...]
THE CHALLENGE AHEAD
Submitted by The Capital Spectator
Today’s update on new orders for durable goods reminds that the slash-and-burn of the Great Recession is over, replaced by the tedious business of rebuilding what’s been lost.
Once again, the news is encouraging, if only because the deep pain of the recent past fades as an imminent threat. And so the [...]
Improving financial regulation and supervision
Submitted by Econbrowser
There were some other very interesting presentations at the conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston last week. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke spoke on Financial Regulation and Supervision after the Crisis while Princeton Professor Alan Blinder’s message was It’s Broke, Let’s Fix It: Rethinking Financial Regulation. Here I summarize four key [...]
Consumer Confidence is a Lagging Indicator: We Should Expect Post-Recession Gloom Through 2010
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
Scott Grannis: I’ve never paid much attention to surveys of confidence, mainly because they tend to be lagging indicators. As these charts show (one appears above), consumers are often quite happy until just before a recession starts, and quite depressed well after a recovery begins.
Brian Wesbury and Bob Stein: Meanwhile, the Conference [...]
Wal-Mart’s Tough New Global Rival: AUCHAN; Everyday Low Prices Backfire in China
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
BusinessWeek — Quick, what’s France’s answer to Wal-Mart? Until now, it has been Paris-based Carrefour, the global No. 2 retail chain. But increasingly, another French retailer, Auchan, is giving both Carrefour (CARR.PA) and Wal-Mart (WMT) a run for their money.
Auchan now has 132 big-box hypermarkets in China, including 110 operating under the [...]
Fourth Monthly Increase in Canadian Home Prices, Largest Four-Month Gain in More Than Two Years
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
Canadian home prices in August were down 3.4% from their pre-correction peak of August 2008, 12 months earlier, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index. It was the eighth consecutive 12-month decline, but the 12-month decline has been diminishing steadily since it peaked at 6.9% in May. The reason [...]
106 Bank Failures In Perspective
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
So far this year 106 banks have failed out of 8,195 FDIC-insured institutions, or slightly more than 1% of all banks. How does that compare to previous periods of financial stress and episodes of bank failures, and is there anything positive about bank failures?
The graph above displays annual bank failures (data here) [...]
The Wal-Mart Economic Stimulus Plan
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
1. In just a three-week period from October 7-27, Wal-Mart announced the opening of 22 new stores and expansions of existing stores that have added 5,340 new jobs to the local communities in 18 different states.
2. Wal-Mart recently announced Hundreds of Millions of Dollars in Price Reductions, with unprecedented savings each week [...]
Supply and Demand in Action: 1-Way Truck Rentals
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
I’ve posted numerous times (here, here, here and here) about how one-way U-Haul truck rental rates reflect supply and demand in action and measure household migration patterns, resulting in high one-way rental prices that reflect high outbound demand (and low inbound demand), and low prices that reflect low outbound demand (and high [...]
Airport Passenger Travel Stages a Comeback?
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
1. AIRPORTS COUNCIL INTERNATIONAL – World passenger traffic posted a positive growth rate in August for the first time since June 2008. Passenger demand finally registered a modest positive growth rate in August 2009 with the world airports reporting a 0.1 percent increase compared to August 2008. International passenger traffic declined slightly [...]
Odds for Health Care Reform Fall From 50% to 7%
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
Intrade odds for the contract “Health Care Reform - Will a federal government run health insurance plan (a public option) be approved in the US?” (by December 2009) have fallen to 7.1%, from almost 50% in August (see chart above, click to enlarge).
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Biggest 3-Month Gain Since 2005 for Case-Shiller
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) — Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in August for a third consecutive month, bolstering the case that an economic recovery is at hand (see top chart above). The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index climbed 1% from the prior month, seasonally adjusted, after a 1.2% increase in July, the group [...]
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