Archive for April, 2009
« Previous EntriesGeneral Motors and Private Investment: Don’t Partner with the Federal Government
Submitted by Businomics Blog
The General Motors debt for equity deal reveals a genuine danger to private investors. If you are considering investing in some other turnaround, be very careful if Uncle Sam might get involved. An editorial in today’s Wall Street Journal presents some estimates of how much different creditors to GM will receive. I’ve [...]
Further progress for initial claims for unemployment insurance
Submitted by Econbrowser
The Labor Department reported today that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 14,000 during the most recent available week. That brings the 4-week average down for the third consecutive week and puts it 3.3% below the peak reached April 9.
Black line: seasonally adjusted new claims for unemployment insurance, weekly since January. Blue [...]
Larry Perelman, RIP
Submitted by unsettling economics
I just returned from my father’s funeral. He died at 98.
When I was young, we were not particularly close. He more than encouraged me to become interested in business and to participate at the Temple. I was totally disinterested in both activities, preferring to play sports. As I grow older, we became [...]
Unemployment Rate for PhD Economists = 0%
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
Economics has long been called the dismal science. The general economic outlook today is indeed dismal, but that doesn’t mean job prospects in the field are. “There is no unemployment among Ph.D.s in economics,” declares John Siegfried, a Vanderbilt University professor.
Just do the math, and you’ll see why: In the current [...]
Green Shoot: Restaurant Activity’s Up For 3 Months
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
(Washington, D.C.) — The outlook for the restaurant industry improved in March, as the National Restaurant Association’s comprehensive index of restaurant activity rose for the third consecutive month. The Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – [...]
New Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
NEW YORK, April 30, 2009 – A unique new monthly economic indicator introduced today by Dow Jones offers what could be an early signal that the economy may be lifting off its low point but any recovery remains very tentative.
The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged higher in April to 27.6, [...]
Clarification on Moderating Comments
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
A commenter writes “…..with Mark running nanny patrol with comments….”
Let me clarify:
Carpe Diem has been subject to several major spam attacks recently, where somebody posts comments with advertising links on hundreds of older posts at a time. On several occassions in the last few weeks, I had to spend the first 30 [...]
Don’t Make America More Like France
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
HT: Dan Mitchell
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The Carry Trade: Finally, Individual Investors can Participate.
Make no mistake…the carry trade makes money. In fact, returns on the carry trade can exceed 10% - 60%+ annually. Unfortunately, for 95%+ of individual investors, the hedge funds that use the carry trade to generate returns can’t market to the public because most claim an exempt status (I’ll explain more in future posts), and [...]
The Stock Market Simulator at Wall Street Survivor
If you’re looking for the best online stock market simulator, or if you want to learn how to trade online, Wall Street Survivor is the best place for you.
The software that runs Wall Street Survivor has been around 20 years serving the top business schools in the United States with Stock Market simulations to educate [...]
Wall Street Survivor - a stock market simulation game
If you’re looking for the best online stock market simulator, or if you want to learn how to trade online, Wall Street Survivor is the best place for you.
The software that runs Wall Street Survivor has been around 20 years serving the top business schools in the United States with Stock Market simulations to educate [...]
CONSUMPTION RETREATS…AGAIN
Submitted by The Capital Spectator
The main point of optimism in yesterday’s first reading of Q1 GDP is the jump in consumer spending. But as today’s update on personal income and expenditures for March reminds, there’s still quite a bit of uncertainty left as to whether consumption is truly on the mend.
Much of what registered as [...]
Chart of the Day:Retirement Age v. Life Expectancy
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
The chart above displays the decreasing median retirement age for men (data from BLS) over the last half century, from almost 67 years in 1950 to less than 62 years by 2005, a decrease of more than 5 years. During the same period, male life expectancy has increased significantly by almost [...]
Did Jobless Claims Peak in Early April?
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
James Hamilton (4/9/2009): If subsequent data confirm that the 4-week average of initial claims did indeed reach its peak in the number reported April 2, and if Robert Gordon’s pattern holds up, the recovery that many of us had assumed would be quarters or perhaps even years away may instead have started [...]
2.3% Real Disposable Income Growth in March
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
From Table 10 in today’s BEA report on Personal Income: Real disposable income increased 2.3% in March compared to March last year, following increases of 2.8% in January and 2.4% in February (see chart above).
This is the sixth consecutive month of positive growth in real personal income compared to the same [...]
Fuel Efficiency Doesn’t Lower Demand, It Raises It
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
It seems intuitive: Increasing the fuel efficiency of automobiles - or anything else that runs on gas - should lower the demand for oil.
It was with precisely that expectation that Congress enacted the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards in 1975, following the Arab oil embargo. At the time, US oil imports [...]
Good economic news?
Submitted by Econbrowser
Today’s GDP numbers were about what I was expecting. Although economic activity continued its sharp decline, if we continue to follow the script, things should improve.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP fell at a 6.1% annual rate in the first quarter of 2009. That’s enough to push our [...]
Homebuilders Index Up By 67.4% Since Mid-March
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
After several years of punishment, the U.S. homebuilding industry has begun to show some glimmers of hope. Earlier this month, The National Association of Home Builders reported its confidence index to be at its highest level since October. This optimism has pushed shares of the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSE: XHB) 18.3% [...]
NY Yanks: Too Greedy to Outsmart Ticket Scalpers
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
The Yankees decided when they opened their new ballpark, that they would outsmart the scalpers and just raise ticket prices to levels where the tickets had normally sold on the secondary market in previous years. It seemed pretty smart at the time and then the first 6 games happened and the seats [...]
Goods-Producing Sector Fell Below 19% in 2008
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
In a previous CD post, I suggested that “Since fewer than 10% of all U.S. jobs are now in the manufacturing sector, should we continue to rely on industrial production as a key economic variable, when the manufacturing share of overall employment continues to decline to record low levels?”
The chart above [...]
ANOTHER PAINFUL GDP REPORT
Submitted by The Capital Spectator
The government’s advance estimate of GDP for the first quarter was worse than expected—quite a bit worse. The consensus outlook called for a 4.7% drop, according to Briefing.com, but the government says the decline was -6.1%.
The good news is that GDP reports are old news, and so today’s dire numbers have [...]
Strategic Planning in the Recession: Guidelines for Corporate Executives
Submitted by Businomics Blog
It’s an awful time to do strategic planning, but the planning MUST go forward. The time is awful because of the uncertainty. Here are some suggestions for planning processes that begin in mid-2009:
Make your scenarios fairly far apart. I was just reviewing the three economic forecasts (baseline, optimistic and pessimistic) developed by [...]
Housing Affordability Falls For Second Straight Month Due to Rising Home Prices in Feb. and Mar.
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
The National Association of Realtors released its monthly Housing Affordability Index today, showing that the index fell in March to 166.7 from 174.4 in February, and from 176.9 in January (historical high), but is still 43 points above the 123.7 index average since 1989 (see chart above).
Housing affordability is determined [...]
Markets in Everything: Stylin’ Flu Masks
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
Link.
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Markets in Everything: Zillow iPhone Ap
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
Imagine strolling through your neighborhood and, with a glance at your iPhone, finding out instantly how much just about any home you walk by last sold for. What if your iPhone could also display your location on a map that pinpoints nearby homes for sale and any that have recently changed hands? [...]
