Archive for July, 2008
« Previous EntriesEconomic Data and the Employment Report
Submitted by A Dash of Insight
At “A Dash” we believe in letting the data drive our conclusions. This can be boring, since everyone wants strongly held and argued opinions. In case you do not see the disagreement, CNBC even shows you a crashing bull and bear.
Today’s Data
The economic news will provide the headline reason for [...]
Not quite a recession
Submitted by Econbrowser
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.9% annual rate in the second quarter of 2008, less than many analysts had been predicting a week ago, but substantially better than the 6-month-ahead predictions for that number that we were hearing back in January.
Today’s report contained some [...]
Exxon Posts Record $32.36 Billion Tax Payment
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
CNN’s headline: “Exxon posts record $11.68 billion profit.”
According to CNN, Exxon Mobil once again reported the largest quarterly profit in U.S. history Thursday, posting net income of $11.68 billion on revenue of $138 billion in the second quarter.
That profit works out to $1,485.55 a second.
Buried in the story we also find that [...]
Recession? Not in 2008
Submitted by Businomics Blog
Wall Street’s rule of thumb, that recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, is not technically correct. But it’s not a bad rule of thumb. Certainly there’s no recession when the economy is growing substantially, even if the growth is below trend. That’s where we are today.
The latest quarter, 1.9 percent, [...]
The Blogger As D.J.
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
Think of a blog as competing with both Google and Wikipedia, among other aggregators. But with Google and Wikipedia you must choose the topic. A good blog writer can randomize the topic for you, much like a good DJ controls the sequence of the music.
~Tyler Cowen on Marginal Revolution
Visit 1800blogger to see [...]
A Shortage of Lawyers
Submitted by unsettling economics
Here is a situation that Shakespeare might appreciate. A shortage of lawyers is plaguing Japan. Really? A New York Times article seems to suggest that.
Stephen P. Magee and William A. Brock. 1984. “The Invisible Foot and the Waste of Nations: Redistribution and Economic Growth.” in David C. Colander, ed. Neoclassical Political Economy: [...]
Due diligence
Submitted by Econbrowser
Tanta caught this story from the Orange County Register:
In November, Wells Fargo issued a $289,275 mortgage for 920 W. Camile to an investor who had purchased the home at a foreclosure auction. In January, after the house was spruced up, Wells Fargo issued a $500,000 mortgage to the new owners, the Gomezes.
Tanta cuts [...]
Can You “Get Smart”?
Submitted by A Dash of Insight
One of our missions at “A Dash” is helping investors see opportunity through a better understanding of organizational behavior, especially that of government.
This is fertile ground. As far as we can tell, no one else in the investment blogosphere is pursuing these themes. Meanwhile, many top pundits and fund managers [...]
THE GOOD, THE BAD & THE UGLY
Submitted by The Capital Spectator
The big-picture economic news looks good, on the surface. But don’t be fooled. It’s not as robust as it looks.
Today’s release of the “advance” number for second-quarter GDP shows that the economy rose by a real annualized 1.9% pace in the three months through June. That’s up sharply from the 0.9% [...]
PONDERING “REAL” YIELDS
Submitted by The Capital Spectator
It’s a simple calculation, although the implications may be huge.
Adjusting the 10-year Treasury yield by consumer price inflation tells us what we already know: money is loose, and by design. The Federal Reserve has been intentionally pumping liquidity into the economy to cure the various ills that hound the American business [...]
Company Docs, Company Medical Clinics Are Back
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
The company doctor is back.
In a climate of deepening health-care woes, company-based medical centers are winning dozens of fresh converts. These include the North American units of Toyota and Nissan, Harrah’s Entertainment, and Walt Disney Parks & Resorts. Pharmacy chain Walgreen, which also operates nearly 200 small clinics for customers at [...]
NO RECESSION
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy doubled its speed in the spring, driven by higher exports, falling imports, and rising spending by consumers given tax rebates meant to neutralize the housing slump. Gross domestic product rose at a seasonally adjusted 1.9% annual rate April through June, the Commerce Department said Thursday in the [...]
H.S. Graduation Rate in Detroit Only 20% for Black Males, And It’s Even Worse for White Males: 17%
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
The chart above is from the recently released study “Given Half a Chance: The Schott 50 State Report on Public Education and Black Males.” From the report:
1. The “good news” is that Detroit is one of the most successful school districts in the country at successfully getting black males to stay in [...]
Drill, Drill, Drill: U.S. Production Today Same as ‘48
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
According to data from the Energy Information Adminstration for crude oil field production in the U.S., our current annual domestic production of about 1.873 billion barrels of crude oil (5.132 million barrels per day) is about exactly the same as oil production 60 years ago, back in the 1947-1949 period (see graph [...]
Overexpansion: New Starbucks Opens Newest Location In Rest Room Of Existing Starbucks
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
Starbucks, the nation’s largest coffee-shop chain, continued its rapid expansion, opening its newest location in the men’s room of an existing Starbucks.
“Coffee lovers just can’t stand being far from their favorite Starbucks gourmet blends,” said Chris Tuttle, Starbucks vice-president of franchising.
“Eventually, Starbucks rest rooms everywhere will sell coffee,” CEO Howard [...]
Incentives Matter
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
From Steven Levitt at Freakonomics:
Why do mortgage brokers get paid everything up front when they originate a deal?
This sort of contract gives brokers terrible incentives. They just want to get a deal done. It matters very little to them whether the borrower eventually defaults or not.
Chris Harris offers a simple solution [...]
Greenpeace Founder Comes Full Circle on Nuclear
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
BETHESDA, MD — Dr. Patrick Moore, a founding member of Greenpeace, reconsiders the global benefits of nuclear energy in the latest edition of ElectricTV.net. Says Dr. Moore, now chairman and chief scientist of the Vancouver-based consultancy Green Spirit Strategies, the protest against nuclear energy that began in the 1970s was “so focused [...]
World Internet Usage Stats
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
The chart above (click to enlarge) is from Internet World Stats, showing the latest Internet usage data. Some interesting, though maybe not surprising, findings:
1. North America has the highest Internet penetration rate in the world of 73.6%, 1.5x the 48.1%penetration rate of Europe.
2. Africa has the lowest Internet penetration rate in [...]
Bring Nuclear Back Home
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
If ever there was a question about the need for nuclear power, it has certainly been dispelled now with the rising cost of fossil fuels.
The high price of oil, natural gas and coal should be a wake-up call to all regions of the country that the era of boundless use of cheap [...]
Gas Falls Below $3.40 in Oklahoma
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
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Statistical Tests Shows Greater Male Variance
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
The table above is from the new study in Science Magazine “Gender Similarities Characterize Math Performance,” recently discussed here on CD, in the WSJ, and on Marginal Revolution.
From p. 494-495 of the study: “The hypothesis that the variability of intellectual abilities is greater among males than among females and produces a preponderance [...]
Most Favorable, Least Favorable Business Climates
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
“A View from Corporate America: Winning Strategies in Economic Development Marketing” is the fifth installment in a series of surveys of senior U.S. executives and their advisors. Similar surveys were conducted by DCI in 1996, 1999, 2002 and 2005.
From the 2008 report, the six states with the most favorable business climates [...]
Seattle Home Prices
Submitted by Businomics Blog
If you bought a home in the Seattle metropolitan area, do you have a profit or a loss? If you bought before June 2006 then you probably have a profit. The average buyer who purchased a house after that month has a loss.
This conclusion is based on inspection of the [...]
Dallas Home Prices: You’re OK If …
Submitted by Businomics Blog
If you bought a home in the Dallas metropolitan area, do you have a profit or a loss? If you bought before March 2006 then you probably have a profit. The average buyer who purchased a house after that month has a loss.
This conclusion is based on inspection of the S&P/Case Shiller [...]
Portland Home Prices: You’re OK If …
Submitted by Businomics Blog
If you bought a home in the Portland metropolitan area, do you have a profit or a loss? If you bought before May 2006 then you probably have a profit. The average buyer who purchased a house after that month has a loss.
This conclusion is based on inspection of the S&P/Case Shiller [...]
