Submitted by Businomics Blog
The rough rule-of-thumb for a recession* is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. By that gauge, we’re probably not in a recession now–but with very little margin for error. Call it a borderline recession or perhaps a recessionette.

What was new in the recent GDP report was an inventory downturn. […]

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Submitted by CARPE DIEM

Q: What would happen if Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, who is accused of having an affair with his chief of staff and lying about it under oath, were the chief executive of a major corporation or nonprofit group instead of the mayor of Detroit?
A: His fate would be a foregone conclusion. […]

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Submitted by unsettling economics
I think Hillary Clinton will be an excellent candidate. The Democrats managed to lose the last elections with boring policy wonks, devoid of any charm. Now after eight years of George Bush, throwing on election will be more challenging. The Hillary is not just a policy wonk, she is grating and lacks […]

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Submitted by The Capital Spectator
There’s been a lot of talk of bubbles lately, including speculation on where the next one lies. Some say it’s in the energy sector; others claim that gold’s a bubble. Here’s our nomination: bonds.
Our proxy for fixed-income is the ever-popular 10-year Treasury, the benchmark for U.S. debt markets and in […]

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Submitted by CARPE DIEM

Thomas Sowell, on the subprime credit crisis:
The government has brought on the housing problem, partly by these very low interest rates, which encouraged many people to go way out on a limb. They’ve brought it on by highly restrictive building policies, which have caused housing prices to skyrocket artificially. And they’ve […]

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Submitted by CARPE DIEM

Reason.tv: To hear the Lou Dobbses and Bill O’Reillys of the world–not to mention politicians ranging from Ron Paul to Hillary Clinton–the middle class of America (however you define that term) has never had it so tough. Between credit squeezes, out-of-control immigration, rising costs of education and health care and everything else, […]

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Submitted by Econbrowser
Michael Dueker is a senior portfolio strategist at Russell Investments and formerly was an assistant vice president in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. He has been doing some very interesting economic research recently in developing what he calls a Qual VAR model for predicting recessions. We are […]

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Submitted by CARPE DIEM
Let’s Permanently Dismiss the “Stagnant Wage Myth”: ALL income groups have gotten richer in a generation:

2 of Every 3 Americans Are Better Off Today Than Their Parents, and More Than 80% of the Bottom Fifth Are Richer Than Their Parents

The charts above are from the study “Economic Mobility of Families Across […]

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Submitted by A Dash of Insight
Trading and investing are quite different things, a matter of time frames.
Today’s trading was sparked by the ISM services report, something that has not attracted much attention in recent years. The Market has focused more on the traditional ISM manufacturing survey, partly because it has a longer history, and […]

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