Archive for February, 2008
« Previous EntriesWHAT’S UP (OR DOWN) WITH CONSUMER SPENDING?
Submitted by The Capital Spectator
On the surface, consumer spending appears to be holding up, and surprisingly well, considering the barrage of discouraging economic and financial trends harassing the waking hours of our hero, Joe Sixpack, of late.
This morning’s update on personal income and spending in January reveals that personal consumption expendtires rose 0.4% last month, [...]
25th Month of Real Disposable Income Growth
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
According to today’s BEA report, real disposable personal income increased by 1.23% in January compared the same month a year ago (see chart above).
Comments:
1. January marks the 25th consecutive month of positive growth for real disposable personal income.
2. Although there has certainly been a slowdown in the growth of real disposable income [...]
R.I.P. Buddy Miles
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
George Allen “Buddy” Miles passed away late last night in Austin, Texas after a long fight with congestive heart disease.
Live clip above of “Them Changes,” by Buddy Miles and Jimi Hendrix at the Fillmore East on January 1, 1970.
Visit 1800blogger to see all of our industry leading blogs.
Rating 3.00 out of 5
[?]
Global Hockey Competition: N.H.L. vs. Russia
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
NYTimes — Alexei Yashin (pictured above) joined a growing movement among Russian hockey players, government officials and business leaders. They are seeking to reclaim a sport viewed here as a national tradition that has been crippled, many say, by the pilfering of hockey stars over the last decade and a half by [...]
Bernanke’s tightrope act
Submitted by Econbrowser
Some analysts are saying that Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is walking a tightrope– if he does not drop interest rates quickly enough, the U.S. will be in recession, but if he goes too far, we’ll see a resurgence of inflation. I am increasingly persuaded that’s not an accurate description of the situation.
We’ve seen [...]
This looks good, too Good
Submitted by A Dash of Insight
Readers of “A Dash” do not need us to tell them the old common-sense idea, “If it sounds too good to be true….”
Or so we would think.
Meanwhile, those watching financial television are bombarded with self-serving ads from brokerage firms suggesting that the intelligent viewer can design his/her own trading system [...]
Election Odds: Obama Now Almost a 6:1 Favorite
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
From trading on Intrade.com for politicial futures contracts:
2008 Democratic Nomination:
P (Obama) = 85%
P (Clinton) = 15%
Visit 1800blogger to see all of our industry leading blogs.
Rating 3.00 out of 5
[?]
ND: Leading the US in Exports AND Protectionism?
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
BISMARK, ND — North Dakota ranked top in the nation for export growth in 2007, according to U.S. Commercial Service reports. The state’s exports totaled $2 billion in 2007, up 34% from its $1.5 billion in exports in 2006; nationally, export growth was 12% more than the previous year.
Among the top export [...]
Google Chief Economist Hal Varian on Data Analysis
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
Google’s Chief Economist Hal Varian Answers Questions on the Freakonomics blog:
Q: What jobs would you recommend to a young person with an interest, and maybe a bachelors degree, in economics?
A: If you are looking for a career where your services will be in high demand, you should find something where you provide [...]
THE REAL TEST
Submitted by The Capital Spectator
CNNMoney calls it a “high wire act.” BusinessWeek says Bernanke “faces stiff headwinds.” And Allan Meltzer in today’s Wall Street Journal asks if the Fed has “reverted to its mistaken behavior in the 1970s?”
The immediate source of the sobering commentary is yesterday’s chit chat between the House financial services committee and [...]
Sesquipedalian Spark, Polysyllabic Exuberance
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
R.I.P. William F. Buckley Jr., 1925-2008
Washington Post: “Erudite Voice of the Conservative Movement”
NY Times: “William F. Buckley Jr., 82, Dies; Sesquipedalian Spark of Right”
Reason Magazine 1983 Interview: “I share about 90 percent of the views of most libertarians”
Visit 1800blogger to see all of our industry leading blogs.
Rating 3.00 out of 5
[?]
Government Crackdown on Good Samaritans
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
INDIANA, PA — Denise George never thought she was breaking the law. Living on the outskirts of Dayton, she didn’t think twice about helping her Amish neighbors — whose religion prevents them from owning vehicles — make a trip or two into town during the week for supplies and other reasons.
That is, [...]
Upbeat Economic News: It’s Not All Gloom & Doom
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
HELENA — With Montana’s unemployment rate at an amazingly low 2%, finding qualified workers for Helena employers is the biggest challenge facing the city’s employment agencies.
SYDNEY — Australia’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell to a record low of 4.1% in January from 4.3% in December, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
HONG KONG [...]
20 Ways Wal-Mart Clinics Will Affect US Healthcare
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
Big-box behemoth Wal-Mart has ventured into the healthcare realm, offering low-cost, walk-in clinics in more and more of its stores every day. Although Wal-Mart medicine may not sound like a great idea at first, these clinics can bring good changes to the health care industry, like insurance-free care, eased emergency rooms, and [...]
Musings on the Dollar: PPP and Thresholds
Submitted by Econbrowser
As the dollar hits a new low against the euro [0}, some thoughts on what arguments make sense, given our knowledge of the statistical properties of real exchange rates.
From Deutsche Bank's Exchange Rate Perspectives (February 22).
We see several themes pointing towards the current USD down cycle being close to an end:
The USD is [...]
Housing Prices: Still Headed Down
Submitted by Businomics Blog
The latest news is really bad for developers selling houses:
That decline reflects two things: first, that we builders have constructed far more homes than Americans need, and second, that they are facing reality that there are too many homes. To sell, you need to cut the price. Here’s how the supply of [...]
Wall Street Research and Your Money: What is the Answer?
Submitted by A Dash of Insight
In our office we have wide-ranging lunchtime discussions about things affecting the market. A recent topic was the impact of the analyst recommendation.
The question before us was the following:
Suppose that you had a feeling that an analyst from a big-name firm was going to downgrade a stock. Further suppose it [...]
4 Indications that it is Time to Start Hedging Your Forex Risk
Submitted by Businomics Blog
(Due to the large fluctuations we’ve had in foreign exchange rates recently, I invited Heather Johnson to contribute this post. Contact information is at the bottom of the article. Thanks, Heather.)
Large multi-national companies that conduct trade around the globe and do so in a number of currencies have known for decades the [...]
Flawed WSJ Editorial: Wages Are a Price, Too
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
Down and wrong.
From today’s flawed WSJ editorial “Inflation May Be Worse Than We Think” by David Ranson:
The graph above shows how rapidly the purchasing power of income declines from an ongoing inflation of 4%. After nine years, an income of $100,000 is worth only $70,000. After 17 years its purchasing power has [...]
Shockingly Low HS Graduation Rates in Detroit:32%
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
According to a study by the Education Policy Center at Michigan State University:
Percent of Detroit students who graduate in 4 years: 31.9%
Percent of female students who graduate in 4 years: 39%
Percent of male students who graduate in 4 years: 25%
Read the Detroit New article here.
Visit 1800blogger to see all of our industry [...]
Assorted Links
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
Thomas Sowell: Venezuela is currently giving us a lesson on the consequences of price controls. The government of leftist President Hugo Chavez has imposed price controls — and seems to be surprised that lower prices have lead to reduced supplies, even though price controls have led to reduced supplies in countries around [...]
Wal-Mart Puzzle: Why Is It Thriving?
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
According to Daniel Gross at Slate.com, Wal-Mart’s stock is at a 2-year high (see chart above) because:
1. Wal-Mart sells necessities, not discretionary items. The overwhelming majority of its sales are not impulse buys. Even in a recession, most people don’t drastically reduce their spending on staple groceries, light bulbs, or diapers.
2. [...]
House prices falling and worries rising
Submitted by Econbrowser
Today we received updates on U.S. house prices from two different sources. The OFHEO national house price index recorded a 1.3% decline in the price of a typical U.S. home during the fourth quarter of 2007, while the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index registered a 5.7% decline during the last three months of 2007. [...]
The China Price: More Evidence of its Demise
Submitted by Businomics Blog
An AP story confirms what the Businomics Blog reported one day earlier: the end of “the China Price.” (Hat tip to the China Law Blog.)
… American toy makers, who rely heavily on Chinese factories, expect prices to increase 5 to 10 percent for the 2008 holiday season, largely because of rising manufacturing [...]
Getting beyond the Rhetoric
Submitted by A Dash of Insight
Readers of “A Dash” constitute a sophisticated investing audience. We know this both from comments and from email. Perhaps readers will take some time to help in our key mission — the blog about a book.
Imagine that you are an individual investor who got your January statement and discovered that [...]
